Bairnsdale hits 24.1C as spring heat arrives

East Gippsland outdid Mildura in the spring heat

Victoria has opened spring with warmth that belongs in late October, and the numbers out of East Gippsland are the ones worth writing down.

Bairnsdale reached 24.1C, more than 6C above the September average, on a day when temperate East Gippsland sat hotter at lunch than semi-arid Mildura.

That reversal is the tell. The heat came off the ranges and down to the coast rather than out of a classic inland furnace, which is why the coastal towns felt it first and felt it hardest.

Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Chris Kent said the entire state had recorded one of its warmest starts to spring.

These are temperatures we don't see very often.

Chris Kent, Bureau of Meteorology

Melbourne's September average top is 17.3C, and the day before Wednesday's report the city came within a whisker of 22C.

Winter set this up. Preliminary data puts winter 2026 among Victoria's ten warmest on record, and it arrived wet as well as mild.

Bureau senior meteorologist Jonathan How said winter 2026 will be remembered for being particularly warm, with the top ten ranking holding across Australia as a whole.

Pacific and Indian Ocean drivers sit in the background of a run like this, but it is the seasonal warmth that keeps turning up in the record books.

Here is the trap. People will launch on the strength of the air temperature while the water and the fire fuel are still sitting in a messy winter to spring pattern.

Gippsland Lakes: warm air, winter water

Do not read 24C air as 24C water. The Gippsland Lakes hold their winter temperature well into September, and the surface warms hours before anything under it does.

At Lakes Entrance and Metung that means a thin warm layer sitting on cold water, so a swim off the transom is far colder than the day feels.

That layering is a thermocline, and in shallow systems it can set up over a single hot day then break down just as fast once the wind turns.

A wet winter also moves timber, and the lakes carry snags and floating debris after a run of high inflows.

Idle speed near the fringing timber, keep a lookout forward in discoloured water, and treat familiar shallows as if they have gained a log since autumn.

Fishing gets a short window. Whiting and snapper often switch on in the lakes during a warm spell, then a southerly change comes through and knocks it flat for a day or two.

Work the warm days, then plan around the front rather than being surprised by it.

The bar at Lakes Entrance deserves the usual respect, because a warm still morning can still hand you an awkward crossing once the change arrives with swell behind it.

Get local advice on the bar on the day instead of assuming a mild forecast means a mild entrance.

Port Phillip: sea breeze against the northerly

Early-season days like this fight themselves. A hot northerly holds through the morning, then the sea breeze pushes back in the afternoon and the bay changes character within an hour.

At St Kilda and Frankston that can mean glassy water at 11am and a short lumpy chop by mid afternoon, with wind and swell no longer agreeing.

The water is still cold enough to matter for anyone in a kayak, on a foil, or swimming off a beach without a wetsuit.

Immersion time, not air temperature, decides how a bad day ends, so dress for the water and carry a way to call for help.

The same warmth pulls the first boats of the season out of sheds that have not been opened since Easter.

Check batteries, bungs, flares and lifejacket service dates before the first launch, because September is exactly when those jobs get skipped.

Mallacoota and Cape Conran: fire thinking starts now

The spring fire outlook for Victoria is one of the most severe in 25 years.

Fire authorities have flagged elevated bushfire risk in East Gippsland from October, along with parts of the south west of the state.

For coastal camping around Mallacoota and Cape Conran, that changes the questions you ask before you leave home.

Work out whether your access is a single road in and out, and know where you would go if it closed behind you.

Dry tracks and boat trailers are worth thinking through, because a hot exhaust or a dragging safety chain in cured grass is a start you never intended.

Carry water for the vehicle as well as the esky, and check the campfire rules for that day rather than trusting last summer's memory.

Divers: use the clean water while it lasts

Visibility can be very good right now. Clearer late winter water often holds until the first spring plankton bloom, which then drops viz away over a few weeks.

If you have a site that needs clean water, the next fortnight will usually beat anything on offer in late October.

On the land

Farmers are reading the same signs.

Jane Carney, a beef breeder in north east Victoria, said the season had been sitting in the background for a while. "I think most people have always got it in the back of their minds, and we've been warned about this dry spring," she said.

A mild wet winter that finishes early leaves paddock feed looking better today than it will look in six weeks.

Warnings move quickly at this time of year, and the front behind this warmth will bring its own conditions to the coast.

Check current Victorian warnings before you tow, launch or head bush.

What to watch

• Timing of the next Southern Ocean front and how fast it swings the wind onshore.
• Water temperature, which will lag the air by weeks in the lakes and on the bay.
• Fuel curing through late September into October in East Gippsland and the south west.
• The first plankton bloom, which ends the good winter visibility for divers.

Plan around the water, not the air. Pull up your local Seabreeze forecast, wind graph and tides before the next session, and tell someone ashore what time you expect to be back.